Planning for the Best-Case Scenario

On a recent podcast interview, the famed sports-writer and best-selling author Mitch Albom was reflecting on his historic memoir Tuesdays With Morrie; a book that the author was not expecting would enjoy commercial success.

During his reflections, Albom recalls that after a powerful segment promoting his book on Oprah Winfrey’s program, another publishing executive pulled him aside and prepared him for the enormous growth in sales that would soon be coming when his interview with Oprah was viewable to the public. “You’re going to want a couple hundred thousand copies of the book ready for when this segment airs.”

And so, what did the publisher of Tuesdays With Morrie do? They only printed an extra 5,000 copies.  They would soon learn that they did not have enough copies for the immense demand that came during the holiday season, prime time for book sales!

Fortunately, the book has gone on to be one of the most successful memoirs in history, selling over 20 million copies worldwide. But, what if Tuesdays With Morrie had not been so lucky? What if it had not evaded the failure of too much success… more success than the publisher had expected?

Companies can fail because they come face to face with the opportunity to succeed on a level they’re not prepared for. This is important. Companies who are humming along happily at normal levels of demand and not preparing for the level of success they’d actually “like” to achieve often find failure right around the corner.

They say they want to grow, but many companies don’t take their own strategy seriously and never prepare for what would happen if they were to actually grow! Scenario Planning is how companies can prepare for incredible, unexpected success, and subsequently capture and sustain this success!

Scenario planning not only allows you to project the future and commit to a long-term plan, but it can also prepare your company for the incredible danger of immense success. It can prevent your company from being overrun by the tidal wave of increased demand when you finally face the opportunity to grow.

I’ve seen this play out first-hand with the disruption caused by COVID-19.

COVID-19, and the self-quarantining practiced by many nationwide, suddenly placed tens of millions of consumers at home with plenty of time to place innumerable orders on a vast array of products and services. To use an already well over-used and cringe-worthy word, the situation is ‘unprecedented’.  However, not everyone was caught off guard.  My clients who had robust scenario planning processes in place had already visualized how they would respond to spikes (and troughs) in demand.  Those with scenario planning are navigating much better than those without. And those who are building their integrated business planning capabilities are faring much better than those who are still struggling under outdated S&OP processes.  

And now, as much of the world is holding out hope for prompt recovery and wondering whether our supply chains will be prepared, leaders with scenario planning in their toolbox are already ahead of the game.  They’re prioritizing their portfolios, seeking out opportunities, and running simulations.  These leaders are preparing for a range of recovery possibilities that could cripple unsuspecting organizations.  You won’t find them among the list of companies whose greatest opportunities for success lead to colossal failures.